What Have You Done For Me Lately? – The Ups and Downs of Willie Cauley-Stein

by Matt George – Sports 1140 KHTK Reporter

After back-to-back tough games for Willie Cauley-Stein over the weekend, both resulting in disappointing losses to the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz, I engaged with a handful of Sacramento Kings fans on twitter who were voicing their frustrations about Willie’s inconsistent play. Despite outplaying the leagues top defensive big-man, Rudy Gobert, twice already this season, Cauley-Stein’s struggles against him on Sunday, and his pitiful block and rebound numbers for the weekend as a whole, have fans worried that Willie’s strong start to the season was an anomaly.

With the Kings drafting Marvin Bagley with the 2nd overall pick in the 2018 Draft, fans were left to wonder is Cauley-Stein’s time in Sacramento was coming to an end. Despite playing the power forward position for most of this young season, Bagley seemingly is most comfortable around the rim, throwing down lobs, blocking shots, and battling for rebounds. In the modern NBA, where stretch-four bigs who can hit the outside shot are crucial, playing Bagley and Cauley-Stein together doesn’t (yet) seem to fit that mold.

Bagley, at just 19 years old, has shown flashes of an ability to hit the outside shot, but takes very limited attempts each game. Of course their is hope that the rookie out of Duke could continue to develop that part of his game, making him a lethal rim-runner alongside Cauley-Stein in the starting lineup. But with Willie on a contract year, expecting a hefty pay day this summer, fans are concerned that it’s not worth the investment.

While I support Cauley-Stein in the starting lineup consistently, and recognize his play this season has been more good than bad, I understand fan caution. Willie’s inability to be among the top rebounders and shot blockers in the NBA is head scratching, with Bagley already showing to be more consistent in those areas. So, I put out a poll on Twitter, to get a feel for fans’ patience level after a couple of bad games for Cauley-Stein and good games from Bagley:

At what point, if any, would you want to see Marvin Bagley take Willie Cauley-Stein's spot as the starting center for the Kings?

— Matt George (@MattGeorgeKHTK) November 26, 2018

729 fans weighed in, and the majority are already calling for Bagley to replace Cauley-Stein in the starting lineup. While I expect this mostly has to do with still-raw frustration from the weekend’s struggles, this poll is the perfect indicator of a fallacy that plagues everyone in professional sports; “What have you done for me lately?”.

Willie Cauley-Stein started the season red-hot, dropping 23 points on the Utah Jazz on Opening Night. It was one of his 11 double-digit scoring nights out of the first 12 games. During that stretch, he averaged 17 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 59% shooting from the field. However, in the more recent eight game stretch, his numbers have dropped. His only inspiring performance as of late also coming against the Jazz in Utah on November 21st. In four of his last five outings, Cauley-Stein has managed single figures scoring and an average of 6.8 rebounds a game.

So which version of Cauley-Stein is the real one? Can it be both?

The fact is, the 6th overall pick in 2015, has a significantly better offensive game than most expected. A true rim-runner with the ideal athletic-big body type, Cauley-Stein’s career ceiling seemed on-par with the likes of Tyson Chandler or De’Andre Jordan in their prime. The reality is, Willie is far more skilled as a scorer than both. He really began to show that side of his game with the departure of DeMarcus Cousins, opening up opportunity in the paint, and the starting lineup, for the former Kentucky Wildcat to make his mark in the scoring column.

Unfortunately, as his offensive production has increased, his consistency with the fundamentals decreased. Willie seems to view himself as a go-to scorer now for Sacramento, sometimes neglecting rebounding and shot blocking for scoring opportunities. But, this season, in a 20-game sample size, Cauley-Stein’s numbers are up nearly across the board.

Scoring per-game has increased. So has his field goal percentage and rebounding. The only slight regression to be found is his assist totals and blocked shots. Also, Cauley-Stein has improved his efficiency around the rim offensively this season, scoring 69% of his shots in the restricted area (a 2% increase from last year). What’s important to note also; these statistical improvements are coming in the same amount of playing time; 28 minutes per game. Oh yeah, and the Kings have won 10 games before December, off to one of their best starts in years.

The truth is, Willie Cauley-Stein has been consistently solid this season for the Kings, and they are winning because of it. He has found a clear role for the first time in his NBA career, and is thriving more often than not alongside his young teammates. It is up to the Kings to decide what kind of money he is worth this summer, and if it is in their best interest to keep him around long-term. There is nothing wrong with Cauley-Stein being motivated by a Clint Capela-type pay day this summer, especially if it’s leading to production that translates to Kings wins.

As good as Marvin Bagley has been as of late, and despite my belief that he will be a better player than Cauley-Stein before even reaching his prime, Willie is the right choice as the starting, top-minutes big on this Sacramento Kings team. There is zero rush for Bagley to take over that spot and produce at a high level, especially with him already contributing off the bench to a winning team.

The Willie Cauley-Stein we saw at the start of the season is not an anomaly. His talent is like his jumping ability, through the roof. Bad games are going to happen, and while fans have more than the right to be critical of poor performances, they need to be aware of how important the good of Willie’s game is to the success of this franchise. And he has been good more often than bad this year.

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