Carmichael Dave makes bold case for Kings to beat 21.5-win projection

The Sacramento Kings enter the 2026-27 season with the lowest projected win total in the NBA, but Sactown Sports’ The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross believes oddsmakers missed the mark.

According to the latest over/under totals, Sacramento is projected to win just 21.5 games, a half-game fewer than the 22 victories the Kings managed during an injury-riddled 2025-26 campaign.

While the number reflects the organization’s rebuilding direction, Carmichael Dave said he couldn’t disagree more with the projection.

“I am not saying the Kings will be good next year. I am not saying the Kings are going to win 35,” he said. “All you need them to win is 22.”

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 24: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Sacramento Kings reacts after he made the game-winning basket against Lauri Markkanen #23 and Walker Kessler #24 of the Utah Jazz at Golden 1 Center on October 24, 2025 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

His biggest argument centers around health. Sacramento’s top players were rarely available together last season, with Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray all missing extended stretches due to injuries. De’Andre Hunter also appeared in just two games before suffering a serious eye injury.

“So either the top three or three of the top four players on the Sacramento Kings missed almost the entire year last year,” Dave said. “If for no other reason than injury, they are in almost every facet better than they were last season.”

The Kings also enter the season with rookie point guard Darius Acuff Jr., giving the franchise what Dave believes is its point guard of the future.

“You now have the future franchise at the point guard position,” Dave said while acknowledging there will likely be rookie growing pains. He also pointed to second-year center Maxime Raynaud and Sacramento’s rookie additions–Acuff, Alex Karaban, and Emanuel Sharp–as reasons the roster appears improved on paper.

Dave admitted there are legitimate reasons the bet could fail, most notably injuries or a major roster shakeup.

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 04: Darius Acuff Jr. #5 of the Sacramento Kings dribbling the ball looks to drive to the basket on John Ukomadu #7 of the Brooklyn Nets during the second half in the California Classic a NBA Summer League game at Golden 1 Center on July 04, 2026 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

“The only things standing in the way of that: injuries, number one, and number two, I can’t foresee trades,” he said. “If they trade Sabonis and LaVine, okay, yeah, maybe.”

Otherwise, Dave believes Las Vegas simply undervalued Sacramento.

“I think Vegas got it wrong,” he said. “I think they got it wrong by a good four or five and a half games, which is really a huge miss for them.”

For Dave, reaching 22 wins isn’t asking much. As long as the Kings stay healthier than they did a season ago and don’t dramatically alter the roster, he expects Sacramento to comfortably eclipse the NBA’s lowest projected win total.