MLB insider says there’s a ‘95% chance’ Luis Arraez is traded

ESPN's Jeff Passan gives Luis Arraez a 95% chance of being traded as the Giants' disappointing season makes the four-time All-Star available.

BY FRANKIE CARTOSCELLI

Jul 21, 2026, 2:38 PM

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With the San Francisco Giants headed toward another missed postseason, All-Star infielder Luis Arraez is emerging as one of the most likely stars to be moved before the MLB trade deadline.

According to ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan, there is a 95% chance the Giants trade Arraez, making the four-time All-Star one of the premier rental bats available for contenders.

San Francisco acquired Arraez hoping his elite contact skills would help stabilize its lineup, but the season has unraveled.

The Giants are now more than 15 games under .500 and on pace to miss the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season, making them clear sellers as the deadline approaches.

A new top 100 trade candidates, with Mason Miller, Shea Langeliers, Zach Neto, Hunter Goodman, Francisco Lindor and Kevin Gausman joining. Fresh info on likelihood of the best players going, too. Keep following here as we’ll keep updating thorough Aug. 3: https://t.co/4DX6hlcWkx

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 21, 2026

More on Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez is playing on a one-year, $12 million contract, further increasing his appeal to teams looking for immediate offensive help without a long-term financial commitment.

While Arraez has always been regarded as one of baseball’s toughest hitters to strike out, Passan wrote that the 29-year-old has elevated his value by improving another critical part of his game.

“Arraez has done more to improve himself in the eyes of teams than perhaps anyone on this list,” Passan wrote. “His second-base defense this year is among the best in the league.”

That defensive improvement has transformed how front offices view the four-time batting champion.

Luis Arraez is batting .323 with four home runs, 36 RBI and an .812 OPS, his highest mark since the 2023 season. He’s also on pace to lead Major League Baseball in strikeout rate for the fifth consecutive year, continuing to separate himself as the game’s premier contact hitter.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 12: Luis Arraez #1 of the San Francisco Giants walks up to the batters box against the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park on July 12, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Passan noted that skill becomes even more valuable in October, when putting the ball in play can be the difference between extending an inning and ending one. Teams searching for lineup balance see Arraez as a unique offensive weapon capable of complementing power-heavy rosters.

His versatility has also boosted his market. Along with playing standout defense at second base this season, Arraez has experience at first base, giving contenders additional flexibility during a postseason run.

Passan believes Arraez’s improved defense now outweighs concerns about his lack of power and speed, projecting him as a three- to four-win player because of his complete offensive profile and defensive growth.

For a Giants club staring at another disappointing finish, trading Arraez would allow the organization to recoup value before he reaches free agency this winter.

Given the demand for impact hitters and Passan’s confidence that a deal is coming, Luis Arraez appears poised to become one of the marquee names moved before the trade deadline.