NBA Draft Lessons: Lottery luck doesn’t guarantee success

NBA Draft insight: Why basketball fans shouldn’t overreact to lottery results, plus key lessons from history ahead of the May 10 Draft Lottery.

BY FRANKIE CARTOSCELLI

May 4, 2026, 1:23 PM

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Watch: Why Draft Position DOESN’T Guarantee Success | 12 mins

As the NBA Draft conversation heats up, the focus for teams like the Sacramento Kings is beginning to sharpen ahead of two key dates: the NBA Draft Lottery this Sunday, May 10th, and the start of the 2026 NBA Draft on June 23rd.

While fans often obsess over lottery positioning, recent discussion on Sactown Sports’ The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross suggests the reality of the NBA Draft is far more complicated.

Following last week’s NFL Draft, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan offered insight that translates directly to the NBA Draft process, explaining how teams balance internal evaluations with outside noise.

#49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said Indiana RB Kaelon Black was the second-highest-rated RB on their board (implying Seahawks 1st-round pick Jadarian Price was not).

Here’s his explanation for why they loved him so much, via @RichEisenShow: pic.twitter.com/XlCyP0WjA4

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 30, 2026

How should teams approach the NBA Draft?

Shanahan laid out the following process when talking about former Indiana RB Kaelon Black, who San Francisco selected with the 40th pick–well above his projected draft slot.

“You can [guess] based on a perception, but based on our evaluation, I think there’s at least a 50% chance he’s going before 40. Do we want to sit and find that out?” Shanahan said.

Shanahan’s point highlights the constant gamble front offices face: trust your board or risk losing your guy.

That same tension exists every year in the NBA Draft. As discussed by Carmichael Dave and Jason Ross, teams must weigh media projections, league buzz, and their own scouting.

Shanahan even acknowledged what many executives won’t: “The media is always going to do what they do, and we listen to that a ton of the time.”

It’s a revealing admission that the NBA Draft process is not conducted in a vacuum.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks during the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 25, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

Still, conviction matters most. “We’re not going to wait and watch him go and then be pissed,” Shanahan added, reinforcing the idea that hesitation can be just as damaging as a bad pick.

That aligns with the Sacramento Kings-centric takeaway: trust your scouting department and commit fully.

History backs that up. The 2017 NBA Draft serves as a perfect example of unpredictability.

Stars like Donovan Mitchell (13th pick), Bam Adebayo (14th pick), and OG Anunoby (23rd pick) were all selected outside the top 10, while multiple top picks failed to meet expectations.

As Dave put it, “It’s not a perfect science. You’re getting it close to the target, but you’re not always going to land.”

That’s why overreacting to lottery results can be misguided. Whether Sacramento lands the No. 1 pick or slides down the board on Sunday, impact players will still be available.

The Kings (22-60) will enter the Lottery tied for the fourth-best odds of securing the top pick in June’s Draft (45.2% of landing in the top four, 11.5% of securing the No. 1 pick).

“If we fall, what if that’s Donovan Mitchell? What if that’s Bam Adebayo?” Dave said, emphasizing the depth and uncertainty of any NBA Draft class.

Ultimately, the NBA Draft isn’t just about position — it’s about precision, preparation, and belief. For the Kings and every franchise, success will come down to one simple philosophy: “Pick the guy you think is going to be good.”

Check out the full conversation at the top of the page or by heading over to the Sactown Sports YouTube channel.

Listen to The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross from 6 – 10 a.m. PDT, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.

Click here for full episodes of The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross