Kings have 3.8% chance to retain their 2025 pick

Winning the lottery standings coin flip, the Sacramento Kings will own the 13th best odds in the 2025 NBA Draft. They'll have a 3.8 percent chance of moving into the top-four and retaining their pick.

BY BRENDEN NUNES

Apr 21, 2025, 3:02 PM Updated: 3:08 pm

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The Sacramento Kings have a 3.8 percent chance of retaining their 2025 NBA Draft pick. When NBA teams end their regular season with identical records, the league does a coin-flip behind closed doors to break the ties.

Sacramento and Atlanta both earned a 40-42 record, but the Kings won the coin flip and the 13th best lottery odds to go with it.

As part of the trade that led to them acquiring Kevin Huerter, the Kings owe their 2025 NBA Draft pick to the Atlanta Hawks, but it does have top-12 protections.

Five ties among teams with identical regular-season records were broken today through random drawings to determine the order of selection for NBA Draft 2025 presented by State Farm. pic.twitter.com/FExaNFXF2B

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 21, 2025

So, the only chance Sacramento has at retaining their pick is if it were to jump into the top-four. According to Tankathon, they will have a 3.8 percent chance of moving into the top-four, including a 0.8 percent chance of lucking into the first overall selection.

If that were to occur, the protections owed to Atlanta convert to a top-10 protected pick in 2026 before becoming two second-rounders.

With a 96.2 percent chance of remaining in their current spot (or falling to 14th), it’s unlikely that new general manager Scott Perry will have Sacramento’s own pick to work with in the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft.

More Kings coverage on Sactown Sports

A key point in the Sacramento Kings 2024-25 NBA season was their decision to trade franchise point guard De’Aaron Fox in a three-way deal that sent Chicago’s Zach LaVine to California’s capital as the primary return.

While a play-in exit was certainly not what LaVine or the Kings had in mind at the time of the move, the dynamic 6’5 scoring guard only pariticapted in 32 games for the Kings and ten with Domantas Sabonis.

Plenty of questions exist surrounding the organization’s future — as Scott Perry has been announced as replacing former general manager Monte McNair — but LaVine expressed his gratitude and contentment with the Kings during Thursday’s exit interivew.

“This city loves basketball. I’ve known that for a long time growing up in Seattle,” he said.

Read More:

Zach LaVine: “I’m very happy with where I’m at right now”

What’s next for the Sacramento Kings?

The Sacramento Kings will head into an uncertain offseason that could once again bring widespread change in the coming weeks and months.

Sacramento will need to determine whether interim head coach Doug Christie will retain the position moving forward, while also looking to hire a new general manager after parting ways with 2022-23 Executive of the Year winner Monte McNair.

Once the Sacramento Kings lock in their head coach and front office leader, they will need to improve a roster that is unlikely to hold a first-round draft pick in June (owed to Atlanta as part of the 2023 Kevin Huerter trade).

Several members of the current roster, including All-NBA center Domantas Sabonis and future Hall of Fame forward DeMar DeRozan, are expected to meet with the organization to gauge their future.

Can this current core be salvaged? Is it time to rebuild? What’s the best path forward for the Beam Team?

Buckle up for a busy offseason in Sacramento.