Laying out the Sacramento Kings’ path to the NBA Playoffs
Mar 8, 2023, 7:50 AM | Updated: 8:45 am
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Writing the words ‘Sacramento Kings’ and ‘NBA Playoffs’ in the same sentence feels almost illegal, but it’s something that is about to become a lot more common as we get closer to the end of the regular season.
That’s right–the Sacramento Kings, a franchise that has set a North American professional sports record by missing the postseason for 16-straight seasons, is speeding towards the finish line with its sights set on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
It took nearly two decades, but the Kings have finally mended their damaged culture thanks to new head coach Mike Brown, two franchise centerpieces in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, integral rotation pieces Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Trey Lyles, and impressive rookie Keegan Murray.
Entering play on March 8th, Sacramento holds a record of 38-26–second in the Western Conference with just 18 games remaining.
Looking back at the team’s expectations on opening night, the season would have been labeled as a success if the Kings could secure a top-ten finish in the West and get some postseason experience in the Play-In tournament.
Instead, Sacramento has sped right past the tenth-through-seventh seed spots and firmly planted itself in the mix for an immediate NBA playoff berth.
(Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
“We want to play our first [playoff] game at home,” Kings rookie Keegan Murray said of Sacramento’s place in the standings following Monday’s win over New Orleans. “It’s not easy, we know we have a lot of tough stretches coming up. We know we have to be locked in every single night.”
Even sitting in a top-three spot in the West with a five-game cushion between themselves and the Play-In territory of a seventh-through-tenth place finish, Sacramento is hungry for more as they jumped into a tie with the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies for second place.
“It’s big, but we’re not satisfied,” Kings forward Trey Lyles said on Monday when asked about the team’s current place in the standings. “We gotta go out and continue to play, whether we’re fifth seed, sixth seed, whatever. We have to go out and win games, and the rest will take care of itself.”
Notice that Murray and Lyles had similar points of emphasis when talking about the team’s current standing. They both know that Sacramento needs to continue playing winning basketball, and they will be where they want come April 9th when the Kings conclude its regular season in Denver.
With only 18 games remaining, the playoff picture is beginning to come into focus.
What must the Kings do to secure home court in the first round? How far away is Sacramento from clinching? Let’s map it out.
Where the Sacramento Kings sit in current standings
Seeds 1-6 automatically secure NBA Playoff berths. Seeds 7-10 will participate in the NBA Play-In Tournament.
- Denver Nuggets (46-19) —
- Sacramento Kings (38-26) – 7.5 GB
- Memphis Grizzlies (38-26) – 7.5 GB
- Phoenix Suns (36-29) – 10 GB
- Dallas Mavericks (34-32) – 12.5 GB
- Golden State Warriors (34-31) – 12.5 GB
- Minnesota Timberwolves (34-33) – 13 GB
- Los Angeles Clippers (34-33) – 13 GB
- Los Angeles Lakers (32-34) – 14.5 GB
- New Orleans Pelicans (31-34) 15 GB
- Oklahoma City Thunder (31-34) 15 GB
- Portland Trail Blazers (31-34) – 15 GB
- Utah Jazz (31-35) – 15.5 GB
The Western Conference is wild.
Thirteen of the conference’s 15 teams are still in the postseason hunt with one month remaining, and there will surely be a lot of drama during the final stretch.
As we all know, the Sacramento Kings have been through enough drama over the past 16 years, so avoiding any tough spots during March would be ideal. Thankfully, the Kings have played themselves into a strong position as their 5.5-game lead over seventh-seed Dallas puts them in a favorable position when it comes to securing a top-six finish.
If the Kings were to finish the season 9-9, the Mavericks would need to go 14-3 over their final 17 games to catch Sacramento in the standings.
Teams like the Timberwolves, Clippers, Jazz, and Trail Blazers are all in a similar position, as it would take either a colossal meltdown from the Kings or an incredible winning streak to catch Sacramento.
Are both scenarios impossible? Of course not. Crazier things have happened, but it’s doubtful as those beneath the Kings will face each other often in the coming weeks, creating a teeter-totter effect as teams looking up in the standings drag one another down during head-to-head matchups.
Twitter user @Buruskeee did a great job outlining the current state of the West, and it’s becoming clear that a top-four finish is very much in the cards for Sacramento.
And just like that Ladies and Gentlemen, your Sacramento Kings are the 2nd seed in the West! I had to add another team to the sheet to track. Here’s how the West stacks up setting the number at 47Ws.https://t.co/6kFRixLhUy pic.twitter.com/WHYjLscGC5
— j.Cliff 🇵🇭 (@Buruskeee) March 8, 2023
Sacramento’s final 18 games include some daunting matchups, but a near .500 finish will likely guarantee an automatic bid into a seven-game series.
According to 538, the Kings have a 96% chance of making the Playoffs. Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities report gives Sacramento a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 74.0% chance of winning its first Pacific Division title since 2002-03.
If Sacramento wins the Pacific, that means they will likely secure a top-four spot in the West, meaning not only could the Kings end the drought, but they can do so by playing their first NBA Playoff game in over 16 years in front of a packed Golden 1 Center.
But first, they have to get there.
Remaining Schedule
According to Tankathon, Sacramento has the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA.
The Kings are about to begin what I believe to be the team’s most brutal three-game stretch for the remainder of the season, as they will face the red-hot New York Knicks on Thursday before traveling to Phoenix to see the new-look Suns.
This team’s most significant test will be ending that three-game stretch against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have won 17 of their past 18 games.
Here’s what the final month of the season will look like for the Kings:
Home Games: 8
Road Games: 10
Back-to-Backs: 4
Games vs. Teams with above .500 record: 10
One Day Of Rest: The Kings have been at their best this season when they have one day of rest. Over 37 games in which Sacramento had one day of rest, they hold a 26-11 record. Of the final 18 games, the Kings will enter a game on one day of rest in 12 of those matchups.
Back-To-Backs: On the second night of back-to-backs this season, Sacramento has surprisingly posted a 6-5 record over 11 games. They will face Brooklyn (away), Boston (home), Utah (home), and Dallas (away) on the second leg of back-to-backs over the final stretch.
On The Road: Sacramento owns the best road record in the Western Conference (18-13), and they will be playing 10 of the final 18 games away from Golden 1 Center.
Teams To Watch For
Two teams could pose a threat to bumping the Kings from the top four: The Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors.
As previously mentioned, Sacramento is in the driver’s seat and can lock down home-court advantage with a near-.500 finish, but two head-to-head matchups against the Suns could threaten the Kings’ place in the standings.
Phoenix already holds a 2-0 advantage in the season series and can lock in the head-to-head advantage with a win over Sacramento on Saturday, and many around the NBA expect the Suns to leapfrog the Kings–and possibly even the Grizzlies–when it’s all said and done.
While the expectations have been pumped up, the Suns face the third-hardest remaining schedule, as they still have matchups against Golden State, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Denver (twice) on the horizon.
Demanding schedule or not, the addition of Durant has Phoenix in NBA Finals contender territory, and the Kings’ 2.5-game lead over the Suns could vanish quickly if losses pile up.
Sacramento has not dropped three-straight games since November 23-28th, as they have consistently bounced back from challenging situations. Doing so over the season’s final month will be crucial if they want to keep space between themselves and the Suns–but that isn’t the only Pacific Division team in the Kings’ rearview mirror.
(Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images)
The defending champion Golden State Warriors are picking up steam as they have won five of their past six games while jumping into the fifth spot in the West standings.
Like the Kings and Suns, the Warriors have a tough remaining schedule (eighth-hardest in the NBA) as they are nearing a four-game stretch that includes matchups against Memphis, Milwaukee, Phoenix, and the Clippers. One aspect of Golden State’s tough remaining slate of games is the fact that they will play nine of their remaining 16 games on the road.
The Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season (7-25), meaning they will have their work cut out for them in March.
Golden State holds a 2-1 record against Sacramento this season during three games in that the Kings have a -1 point differential, and the two teams will face off one last time on April 7th in the season’s penultimate game.
Both teams’ playoff fates may be sealed by then, but that will depend on whether or not Sacramento can hold off Steph Curry and a Warriors team that could be in its ‘Last Dance’ as the franchise will have some possible restructuring questions to address in the summer.
If the Kings finish the season 9-9, Golden State will need to go 13-3 over their final 16 games to tie them in the standings.
Home-court advantage is right there for the taking, but Sacramento will need to play at least .500 basketball while hoping that Phoenix and Golden State don’t run into lengthy winning streaks.
When you look at the recent track record of this team, they have answered the bell each time they have faced adversity, and the Kings have another test in front of them as they begin the final push.
Chase For Second?
While we have already looked at some teams beneath the Kings that could be a threat in the coming weeks, Sacramento is currently knocking on the door of the second seed in the West as the Memphis Grizzlies enter a final stretch engulfed with drama and uncertainty.
With Ja Morant sidelined for what could be an extended period due to his recent off-the-court antics, a once-dangerous Grizzlies team is now tasked with continuing on without the face of its franchise.
Memphis is currently in a tie with the Kings for the second seed in the West, but the Grizz will soon face several teams that are playing for playoff position, such as Golden State (twice), Dallas (three times), and the Clippers (twice).
Sacramento owns the tie-breaker over Memphis, as the Kings (26-14) hold a better record vs. Western Conference opponents than the Grizzlies (20-18).
It will be interesting to see how the top four of the West unfolds, but Memphis, Sacramento, Phoenix, and Golden State will likely be the four teams fighting for the second, third, and fourth spots behind the top-seed Nuggets.
The Sacramento Kings continue to prove that they’re for real.
38-26.
Half-game back of the 2nd seed.
5.5 games up on the 7th seed.
Top offense in the NBA.
Best road record in the West.
18 games to go.Sweet Beams 🟣🔦🌙 pic.twitter.com/ThRjGuQYBh
— Frankie Cartoscelli (@FCartoscelli3) March 7, 2023
Predicting A Clinch
Time is running out in the 2022-23 NBA season, as every team has less than 20 games remaining on their respective schedules.
Assuming the Kings maintain at least a seven-game gap between themselves and the 10th seed, they can at least clinch a Play-In berth sometime during their last home stand of the season that takes place from March 21- 29th.
Depending on how things unfold in the coming weeks, it’s possible that they could also secure a top-six spot near that final week of March if they maintain a five-or-six-game lead over the seventh seed. As for home court, that’s tricky to predict, but the picture will become more apparent with each passing game.
If the Kings stay their current course, we could see the end-of-drought celebration taking place before the end of the month, but it all depends on how Sacramento navigates a tough schedule.
Are you ready for the biggest month of Sacramento Kings basketball in nearly 20 years? The wait appears to be nearing an end as this team seems primed for its first NBA Playoffs appearance since the 2005-06 season.
Upcoming Sacramento Kings Schedule
Thursday, March 9th – Sacramento Kings vs. New York Knicks – 7:00 PM PST
Saturday, March 11th – Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns – 6:00 PM PST
Monday, March 13th – Sacramento Kings vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 7:00 PM PST
Wednesday, March 15th – Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls – 5:00 PM PST
Thursday, March 16th – Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets – 4:30 PM PST
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