UFC 277 Preview & Predictions

As Bruce Buffer would say: “It’s TIME” fight fans, for UFC 277.

This Saturday’s fight card is the first time the UFC has returned to Dallas, Texas in over four years and it’s sure to be a banger from top-to-bottom. Two title fights, including the rematch of Julianna Peña and Amanda Nunes should be enough to tune it, but the promotion has also added fan favorite and Texas resident, Derrick Lewis, onto the card.

So if you’re a fan of high-quality bouts then strap in for three hours of some of the best fighters in the world going head-to-head against one another.

But before we get to the action, let’t take a look at the tale of the tape for Saturday night’s main card.

Magomed Ankalaev (17-1) v. Anthony Smith (36-16), Light Heavyweight

Kicking off the main card is a light heavyweight contender clash between Magomed Ankalaev and Anthony “Lionheart” Smith.

Lionheart is coming into this one on an impressive run of form, winning his last six bout since his decision loss to Jon Jones in 2019. Finishing four of his six opponents, Smith has taken out most of the division in that time span, submitting Ryan Spann in the first round most recently. The 34-year-old is one of the most versatile 205-pounders on the roster, able to secure the victory via his explosive striking or on the ground in a variety of submission techniques. The key to victory for him will be his patience and composure, exhibiting that in the Spann fight where he picked his spots in the first before eventually going to the ground for submission. If he does that, he should be in line for another crack at the title.

Across from his Saturday stands one of the UFC’s rising stars in Magomed Ankalaev. Since being submitted in his first bout in the UFC, the Russian has gone on a seven-fight win streak, scoring the unanimous decision victory over another former title challenger, Thiago Santos, in March. Possessing both great timing and knockout power, Ankalaev has shown a willingness to bide his time inside the Octagon, waiting for the opening before firing off a variety of combinations. The Russian also has an extremely effective head kick that pops out in virtually no time at all, making him a tricky opponent for anyone.

Expect this fight to go to the cards unless Smith or Ankalaev catches the other, which is never out of the realm of possibility for these two. Smith has shown a distaste in his opponent all week leading up to the fight, confused by the hype surrounding the Russian. Regardless, this will be big test for both men and should see them land a considerable amount of strikes, both on their feet and on the ground. Will we see Lionheart look to control this one with his grappling? Most likely. But don’t be syrpsied to see Smith with a few sraps and bruises as Ankalev is as worthy of foe as anyone in the 205 division. That being said, give me Lionheart in this one as he makes another step towards his second shot at the title.

Prediction: Smith via Unanimous Decision

Alexandre Pantoja (24-5) v. Alex Perez (24-6), Flyweight

Our first flyweight bout of the night will provide more clarity in the UFC rankings as #4 Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja faces off against #6 Alex Perez.

After a year and a half hiatus, Alex Perez is has finally made weight and is ready to step back in the octagon. A run of issues related to injuries and weight-cutting has kept the former flyweight title challenger out of the UFC fold since being submitted by the champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, in late 2020.

Perez may be small but he’s a s scrappy as ever, able to finish his opponent on the ground and on his feet. Before losing to the champ, the native Californian had put together an impressive winning streak, finishing Jordan Espinosa and Jussier Formiga earlier in the year. The 30-year-old packs some power in those punches, able to drop the opposition before finding his opening on the ground with his exceptional jiu-jitsu, like he did on Season one of Dana White’s Contender Series.

Standing across from him is “The Cannibal” Alexandre Pantoja, eager as ever to get his shot at the 125-pound title.

The Brazilian last fought in August of 2021, submitting Brandon Royval via rear-naked choke in the second round. A longer than expected hiatus, Pantoja is back and ready to face Perez mano-a-mano. With a similar style as his upcoming opponent, the Brazilian is a good striker that swarms his prey with good combinations and timing. Cannibal can do a massive amount of damage on the ground as well, thanks to his background of superb Brazilian jiu-jitsu, looking for there submission at all times. Currently on a two-fight win streak, the Brazilian also holds a victory over fellow main carder Moreno, beating him via unanimous decision in 2018.

This is the most pick’em fight on the main card Saturday as both fighters are almost identical on all aspects of their styles and skillsets. Pantoja is currently the favorite a -188 but this fight could easy go either way and will probably come down to the judges’ score cards.

With that being said, give me the Brazilian. He’s fisher than Perez and already had a little chat with Moreno after his last victory about getting shot at the belt, an opportunity that should come to fruition if he gets his hand raised.

Prediction: Pantoja via Unanimous Decision

 

Derrick Lewis (26-9, 1 NC) v. Sergei Pavlovich (15-1), Heavyweight

Our third fight on the main card features Texas’ favorite fighter, Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis, versus Sergei Pavlovich.

The UFC’s resident funny man, Lewis’ knockout power is nothing to joke about, able to finish a fight with one punch at all times. Since his inaugural title challenge loss against Ciryl Gane, Lewis has done exactly what he’s known for: Score a big knockout in the first bout, and then get knocked out in the second one. The biggest issue for the 265-pounder’s career has been fitness as the typical gameplay when facing him is to just wait it out. The Black Beast loses his patent power and gets tired after the first two rounds, opening up for his opponent. The key for him is to manage his explosive bursts accordingly, not to tire himself out too early in the fight if he doesn’t get the finish. But that’s not really his style.

His opponent is also known for unreal knockout power as Sergei Pavlovich is currently riding a three-fight knockout streak since his first professional loss in 2018. A former Fight Nights Global heavyweight champion, Pavlovich’s most recent victory over Shamil Abdurakhimov showed the UFC that he’s ready for a bigger challenge. A true mauler inside the octagon, the 30-year-old is about to strike from close and long distance, sporting an impressive 84″ reach. The Russian’s most impressive knockout came against Maurice Greene in 2019, physically scaring the life out of his opponent as Greene fell to the ground after a bombardment of punches that forced Herb Dean to call the bout.

A matchup between two heavy hitters, this one won’t make the final bell as someone will get caught with a powerful blast from their opponent. My money is on Lewis getting the stoppage, partially due to him being in his home state but also because he’s faced tougher competition. The Black Beast doesn’t lose back-to-back fights and don’t expect him to do so Saturday night. Although he’ll have to be wary of the Russian’s power, able to close the curtains in similar fashion.

Prediction: Lewis via First-Round TKO

Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) v. Kai Kara-France (24-9, 1 NC), Flyweight

The first of two title fights, former flyweight champion Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno squares off against Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France for the interim title.

In a rematch almost three years in the making, Kara-France steps in to the octagon for his first title shot against a familiar foe in Moreno.

Since their 2019 bout, Don’t Blink has gone on a tear of the division, winning three of his last four fights entering Saturday’s matchup. Kai is an elite-level striker, about to put together beautiful combinations while bombarding you like a pitbull stopping an intruder. Case in point, the Cody Garbrandt fight, when the New Zealander put “No Love” flat on his back numerous times from connecting cleanly and powerfully. Kai then demonstrated patience and poise in his most recent bout with Askar Askarov, stopping 12 off the Russian’s 14 takedown attempts. That statistic will be a key component in Saturday night’s fight as his opponent loves to take it to the mat.

Speaking of said opponent, the pride of Mexico, Brandon Moreno, is ready to reclaim UFC gold after losing it in January.

Tired of waiting for current flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo (Out with a hand injury), the UFC went ahead and booked one of their more likeable fighters an interim title bout with Kara-France. Off the heels of three incredible fights with the Brazilian, Moreno now faces a pure striker in the New Zealander, putting his elite striking potential to the test. What makes the Mexican so versatile is his ability on the ground, strong enough to control and move the opposition, while looking for the  submission from every possible angle.

Just like in all three of his previous bouts, expect Moreno to go for the takedowns early, chipping at Kara-France’s legs and ability to strike on the feet. The Assassin Baby will need to be very aware of his opponent’s power, able to turn off the lights with a few well-timed strikes. Kai’s takedown defense in March is the biggest x-factor in this one; if he can stop Moreno from controlling this one, it’s possible he can be the new champ by the end of the night. I don’t see that happening however as Moreno has beaten him once and has only gotten better since then.

Love Kara-France, hate the matchup. Expect Moreno to go for the takedown, and the submission, early in this one, eventually trapping the Kiwi with his jiu-jitsu for the finish.

Round 4 of Figueiredo v. Moreno here we come.

Julianna Peña (12-4) v. Amanda Nunes (21-5), Women’s Bantamweight

The creme de la creme, a rematch UFC fans have been waiting for as Juliana “The Venezuelan Vixen” Peña faces off against Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes for the women’s bantamweight strap.

Peña shocked the world last December when she submitted, arguably the G.O.A.T. of women’s MMA, Amanda Nunes in the second round. The Venezuelan Vixen has come a long way since winning The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013 and is hungry to prove she’s the best at 135 pounds.

Able to strike and grapple with the best of the best, Peña thrives on dominating a fight, controlling from opening bell of round one to the final horn of the third or fifth round. It was here persistent jab that caught the attention of the Brazilian early in their previous match as Peña’s power is sneaky, but definitely there. Once she’s fazed her opponent, the American is able to get you on the ground in a variety of ways. When she threw Nunes to the ground from the clinch in round two is my favorite, just out muscling The Lioness. At 32-years-old, Peña is in the prime of her career and presents as the biggest foe her opponent has faced, and will face, to date.

What more is there to say about Amanda Nunes. The former double champ has been a megastar in the UFC since winning the belt against Miesha Tate in 2016. In fact, she was so dominant the UFC had to create another division for her at Featherweight.

Now coming off her first loss in the promotion since 2014, The Lioness is ready to resume her rein as the Queen of combat sports.

Dually dangerous on the ground and on her feet, Nunes is the complete package when it comes to the MMA fighter, thanks to her huge size (5’7″) and strength in the weight class. Like a predator stalking its prey, Nunes has dismantled her opponents for the last five years, thanks to her striking and knockout power, before bringing them too the ground for a quick submission.

Here’s the caveat: She hasn’t beat Peña in her career.

Anything can happen in the UFC but I see her last bout as an anomaly, when you’re at the top for as long as she was, it’s easy to slip up in a routine fight. Not to discredit the current champ, but she’s been a journeywoman most of her career, holding losses to Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie, two women Nunes has beaten decisively.

Don’t call it a comeback(because it isn’t really) but I think Nunes finishes the champion in this one. Peña has proven herself as a title challenger, it’s just impossible to pick anyone but The Lioness, her combination of striking and groundwork is tantalizing, able to find unique angles only true greats of the sport are able to achieve. Nunes had success in the first round before Peña caught her by surprise in the second, so I expect the former to prove once again why she’s the queen of the company. But again, crazier things have happened, it’s anyone’s fight until the final bell and Peña has been as confident as ever during fight week. Additionally, Nunes looked very weak at the official weigh-ins Friday morning. Those don’t always tell the full story but it’s definitely a footnote in this one.

We’ll definitely see who has the biggest ovaries Saturday night.

Follow @AmilianoFragoso

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