Sam Amick breaks down major NBA Draft Lottery reform plan

The NBA Draft Lottery could be headed for its most dramatic overhaul in years, as league officials push forward with a sweeping reform designed to curb tanking and restore competitive integrity.

Speaking on Sactown Sports’ The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross, The Athletic’s Sam Amick expanded on his recent report detailing the league’s proposed “3-2-1” system — a plan that would fundamentally reshape how lottery odds are distributed beginning with the 2027 draft.

At the heart of the proposal is a shift in incentives. Rather than rewarding the league’s worst teams with the best odds, the new NBA Draft Lottery format would favor teams that remain competitive late into the season.

“If you’re trying to get your hands on the 2% elite talent. That is why these teams have been taking more drastic measures,” Amick said, highlighting how the current system encourages losing in pursuit of top prospects.

(Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)

Under the proposal, 16 teams — up from 14 — would enter the lottery, with odds distributed based on a tiered “3-2-1” structure.

Teams just outside playoff contention would receive the best odds, while the bottom three teams would actually be penalized, receiving fewer lottery balls in what’s being called a “draft relegation” mechanism.

The NBA Draft Lottery changes go even further. Teams would be barred from winning the No. 1 pick in consecutive years or earning three straight top-five selections. The league would also gain expanded authority to punish tanking by adjusting draft positions or lottery odds.

While the proposal has gained traction, questions remain about its broader impact.

“You’d better firm up all the cracks, because people are going to exploit them,” Amick noted, pointing to potential loopholes that teams could manipulate if the system isn’t airtight.

There’s also a growing belief that the lottery isn’t the NBA’s only issue. Amick suggested the league’s 82-game schedule plays a role in diminishing late-season competitiveness.

“This combination of pace and space, and still having the 82-game schedule, is why we see so many tires getting blown out late in the season,” he said.

Despite those concerns, momentum is building toward change. With a Board of Governors vote scheduled for May 28, Amick believes the proposal has a strong chance of passing, even if tweaks are made along the way.

“I do think it will go through,” he said, adding that the built-in sunset clause — which would revisit the system after 2029 — has helped ease concerns among league stakeholders.

Check out the full conversation at the top of the page or by heading over to the Sactown Sports YouTube channel.

Listen to The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross from 6 – 10 a.m. PDT, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.

More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports

• Complicated changes to NBA Draft Lottery system could be coming
• NBA Draft Lottery shake-up? What it could mean for the Kings’ rebuild
• Why recent history says the 5th-best Lottery odds may help Sacramento
• Where would Keegan Murray go in a 2022 Re-Draft?

Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule

• Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
• Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
• Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
• Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
• Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
• Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
• Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official

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