NBA Draft Lottery shake-up? What it could mean for the Kings’ rebuild

The Sacramento Kings are staring down a pivotal offseason, but looming NBA Draft Lottery reform could significantly reshape how their rebuild unfolds.

Speaking on Sactown Sports’ Kings insider Brenden Nunes joined The Drive Guys to break down how the league’s proposed changes—reported by The Athletic‘s Sam Amick earlier this week—might alter Sacramento’s path forward.

Under the leading proposal, 18 teams would enter the lottery, with the bottom 10 each receiving an equal 8% chance at the No. 1 pick. That flattens the odds compared to the current system, where the worst teams are rewarded more heavily.

For a Sacramento Kings team coming off a 22-60 season–one that resulted in the fifth-best odds in May 10th’s Lottery– that shift could cut both ways.

(Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images)

More on the NBA Draft Lottery Reform

“I don’t think anything’s going to fix tanking, to be honest,” Nunes said. “No matter what, you’re going to see some teams try to reach that threshold.”

For Sacramento specifically, the change could lessen the urgency of a full teardown. Rather than aggressively bottoming out, the Kings could attempt a “hybrid rebuild”—remaining somewhat competitive while still holding a meaningful lottery shot.

“You could bring guys back, still try to develop, and guess what—we’re still going to have that 8% chance,” Nunes explained.

But that middle ground comes with risks. Flattened odds reduce the reward for being among the league’s worst teams, which historically has been one of the few reliable paths for small-market franchises to land franchise-altering talent.

“The lottery is the most important for small-market teams,” Nunes said. “And it feels like this hurts them.”

That concern is amplified when looking at Sacramento’s current situation. The Sacramento Kings are still searching for a true cornerstone player, something Nunes emphasized remains essential.

Sacramento Kings GM Scott Perry (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)

“We’re all crossing our fingers for the lottery for the sake of this organization moving forward,” he said, noting that an 8% chance “would feel really bad” compared to the current structure.

Another unintended consequence could be new forms of strategic losing. Instead of teams racing to the very bottom, the incentive may shift to simply finishing inside the bottom 10.

“If I’m the 11th team, I’m really trying to get to that top 10,” Nunes pointed out. “We’re going to be back in the same conversation.”

Ultimately, while the proposal aims to improve the on-court product and discourage blatant tanking, its real impact may not be clear for years.

As Nunes put it: “There’s not going to be this much manipulation every single season, but I just don’t know that there’s a way to fix this.”

For the Sacramento Kings, that uncertainty only adds another layer to an already complex rebuild—one that may soon require adapting to a very different lottery landscape.

Listen to The Drive Guys from 2 – 6 p.m. PST, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.

More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports

• Dybantsa, Peterson declare for 2026 NBA Draft
• Why recent history says the 5th-best Lottery odds may help Sacramento
• Should the Kings’ main offseason priority be a PG?
• Exclusive: Kings GM Scott Perry lays out his offseason thought process

Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule

• Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
• Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
• Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
• Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
• Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
• Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
• Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official

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