Jerry Reynolds: Keaton Wagler could be a “sleeper” in upcoming NBA Draft

The most likely outcome in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is the Sacramento Kings ending the night with the sixth overall pick, but Jerry Reynolds believes Illinois Keaton Wagler could be a “sleeper” from the 2026 class.

Owning the fifth-best odds, Sacramento will have a 45.2 percent chance of jumping into the top four, but still a 27.1 percent chance they fall to sixth. The top four prospects are widely considered to be AJ Dybansta (BYU), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Cameron Boozer (Duke), and Caleb Wilson (North Carolina). After that, there seems to be more debate.

Allen Stiles and Kevin “Whitey” Gleason were joined by Jerry Reynolds, former Sacramento Kings head coach, general manager, and broadcaster, to discuss the prospect.

“I think a sleeper, though, and I don’t know if he’s as ready as (Kingston) Flemings or (Darius) Acuff, but Wagler from Illinois,” Reynolds told The Drive Guys. “I just like his late development. You know, he really wasn’t recruited out of high school much. He’s big, he’s long, he’s athletic. You just wonder when that body fills out. The ceiling might be a little higher than some other guys’ might be.”

In his freshman season at Illinois, the 6’6 guard averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Converting 44.5 percent from the field and 39.7 percent of his 5.9 three-point attempts per game impressed, considering the amount of on-ball creation he did for a team that made it to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.

Keaton Wagler was named a consensus All-American and the Big 10 Rookie of the Year. Weighing in at roughly 180 pounds, there are questions about how he will adjust to the physicality of the NBA. Yet, those same concerns existed in college, and he overcame them seemingly with ease.

In their five NCAA tournament games, the freshmen often led their team with 18 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three.

Sacramento general manager Scott Perry and his staff will obviously study the entire draft, but they may not need to make fallback plans beyond the ninth pick, the furthest their lottery pick could fall.

After the top four, others often considered alongside Wagler include Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff Jr., Brayden Burries, and Mikel Brown Jr.

(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

While missing out on one of the top selections would disappoint the fanbase, there’s no saying that any of those players couldn’t become perennial All-Stars or franchise-leading NBA players.

“I think it’s a very good draft,” Reynolds said. “It certainly looks like it’s going to be a nice, deep draft, and there’ll be surprises. You know, there’ll be guys taking 12 or 13 that are better than guys taking four or five, as there always are.”

Four players have won the last five MVPs, and one was selected in the top-10 of their draft. Joel Embiid went third while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th) went a bit later in the first. Denver’s Nikola Jokic is the true outlier and the best second-round pick ever at 41st overall.

Check out the full conversation at the top of the page or by heading over to the Sactown Sports YouTube channel.

Listen to The Drive Guys from 2 – 6 p.m. PST, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.

More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports

• Complicated changes to NBA Draft Lottery system could be coming
• NBA Draft Lottery shake-up? What it could mean for the Kings’ rebuild
• Why recent history says the 5th-best Lottery odds may help Sacramento
• Where would Keegan Murray go in a 2022 Re-Draft?

Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule

• Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
• Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
• Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
• Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
• Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
• Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
• Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official

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