Complicated changes to NBA Draft Lottery system could be coming

Just one day after The Athletic‘s Sam Amick reported that there were clear favorite options for NBA Draft Lottery reform, it’s being reported that league commissioner Adam Silver proposed a “3-2-1 system” to all 30 teams.

Being rewarded for losing games with higher lottery odds and, therefore, greater chances of landing a franchise-changing talent in the draft has caused teams with poor records to punt the end of their season. This has become known as “tanking” in the sports world, as teams essentially tank their records to take advantage of the current system.

Having dealt with this for years, the NBA league office already attempted to limit that by flattening the lottery odds prior to the 2019 Draft. Now, more changes are expected to take place beginning in the 2026-27 season.

“The proposal, which was obtained by The Athletic and would go into effect for the 2027 draft if approved, aims to create an environment that heavily incentivizes teams at the bottom end of the standings to win their way up the ranks as a way of improving their lottery odds. The lottery would expand from 14 teams to 16 in this system, with lottery balls drawn for all 16 qualifying teams.”

• NBA proposes new ‘3-2-1’ draft lottery system, sources say. Here’s how it works by Sam Amick, The Athletic

Hence, the “3-2-1” naming, the 16 teams in the lottery would either have three, two, or one ping pong ball(s) included in the draw based on their seeding. Amick reported that the bottom seven teams would all have three balls, leaving each with an equal 8.1 percent chance of securing the coveted first overall pick.

However, that does not include the bottom three records in the league, which would be penalized for their poor performance. They, along with the four other non-postseason teams, would have two balls, equaling a 5.4 percent chance at landing the top spot but the relegated bottom three would fall no lower than 12th.

Finally, the losers of the play-in games would have a small 2.7 chance. While minuscule, crazier things have happened, including the most recent 2025 NBA Draft, where the Dallas Mavericks, who lost in the play-in, won the lottery with 1.8 percent odds.

Kevin “Whitey” Gleason and Allen Stiles reacted to the news in real time on The Drive Guys.

As if that wasn’t already a lot to keep up with, there are even more rules that would be included if voted in favor of at the May 28th Board of Governors meeting. Here are the added complications, as reported by The Athletic.

• No team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks.
• Teams would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.
• The proposal includes a sunset provision, with the new system expiring following the 2029 draft and requiring an affirmative vote of the Board of Governors to either continue with the system or transition to a new one.
• Under the proposal, the league would have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking by having the option to reduce teams’ lottery odds and/or modify teams’ draft positions.

“Looking at the (Brooklyn) Nets and looking at the way they appeared to tank the ending of games, this should address that,” Gleason said in reaction to the news.

According to the report, the idea was “well received by the majority of the league’s GMs,” even if potential alterations could still occur before finalization.

“There’s so much safety between four and 10 (spots),” Stiles added. “Utah had 22 wins. Milwaukee had 32. That’s a 10-game difference. So I think to, I guess, change this in a different way. If you are safely in that zone, I don’t really know what you’re what it changes for you.”

It will take time to fully grasp these changes, and the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, an essential one to the Sacramento Kings’ future aspirations, will not be under these new rules.

Be sure to listen to The Drive Guys full explinations, reaction, and breakdown of the proposed changes by clicking the above link or heading to the Sactown Sports 1140 YouTube.

Listen to The Drive Guys from 2 – 6 p.m. PST, Monday through Friday, on Sactown Sports 1140.

More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports

• Dybantsa, Peterson declare for 2026 NBA Draft
• Why recent history says the 5th-best Lottery odds may help Sacramento
• Should the Kings’ main offseason priority be a PG?
• Exclusive: Kings GM Scott Perry lays out his offseason thought process

Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule

• Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
• Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
• Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
• Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
• Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
• Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
• Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official

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