Expected NBA Draft reform changes in attempt to limit tanking

The NBA has repeatedly discussed the issue of teams’ preference to lose games later in the season to improve their draft lottery odds, a practice known as “tanking.”

Commissioner Adam Silver and the league office have reportedly been exploring different options to limit that and increase the competitiveness of most matchups on any given night. In the current system, the three teams with the worst record have a shared 14 percent chance of landing the first overall pick, with the chance decreasing by 1 percentage point for each team after them, down to 14th.

That leaves every team that missed the postseason, including play-in losers, with a chance at lucking into the number one pick. Those increased odds with worse records, along with how much one player can change an organization’s fortunes, are why tanking has become commonplace.

Well, it seems this will be the final season under the current rules and odds. According to Sam Amick of The Athletic, the league is hosting a meeting with all 30 front offices on Tuesday, March 28th, in order to continue discussing potential changes.

Prior to that meeting, Amick’s reporting says there’s a clear favorite to be implemented.

“Option No. 1, in which 18 teams would be part of the draft lottery (rather than the current 14) and the bottom 10 teams would all have an 8 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. The remaining odds — 20 percent in all — would be divided among the remaining eight teams. In the current system, the bottom three teams all have a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and the odds decline from there.”

• What I’m hearing about NBA Draft Lottery changes, coaching hot seats and more by Sam Amick, The Athletic

If that were agreed upon, the 10th-worst record would go from a 3% chance to an equal 8% with every team below it. Would it discourage teams from winning under 20 games, as the Washington Wizards (17-65) and Indiana Pacers (19-63) did in 2025-26? It seems like it could.

But it seems that would encourage the team in 11th to try to get under that bottom-10 marker. Maybe that leads to more competitive basketball games when looking at the season as a whole, but teams would surely still try to manipulate the system, since they might be rewarded for doing so.

Plus, adding four more teams to the lottery would mean that losing in the first round could be more beneficial than losing in the second. Perhaps the added income from another playoff series would counteract that, but eliminating tanking completely would require drastic changes.

Amick reported that it would take a minimum of 23 owners to vote in favor of the change at next month’s Board of Governors meeting, with tweaks still plausible. Whether that plan is revised, implemented as is, or completely scrapped, it seems that changes to the lottery system are inevitably coming to the NBA in the 2026-27 season.

More Sacramento Kings content from Sactown Sports

• Dybantsa, Peterson declare for 2026 NBA Draft
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Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule

• Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
• Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
• Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
• Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
• Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
• Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
• Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official

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