Waiting For ‘The Big One’
Aug 13, 2021, 3:17 PM | Updated: 3:25 pm
(USA Today)
(USA Today)
The Sacramento Kings have been projected to win 34.5 wins. In order to move the needle next season, the team needs a big move.
When the win projections for the 2021-22 NBA season were released on Friday morning, I felt as if I didn’t even have to look at the prediction for the Sacramento Kings.
In my head, the number was in the 34-37 range.
Well, it turns out that guess was pretty close as PointsBet USA Sportsbook revealed the over-under for Sacramento’s 2021-22 win total: 34.5 games.
For reference, the Kings have averaged 33.6 wins over the past three seasons (one 82-game season, two 72-game seasons).
The 34.5 number shouldn’t be looked at as a jab or disrespect to a Kings team that has missed the postseason in every season for the past 15 years. As the saying goes, it is what it is. Sacramento has mightily struggled since 2006, logging zero seasons with 40 wins or more since the 2005-06 season when they finished 44-38.
However, this Kings team has more talent than those late 2000’s or the early-to-mid 2010’s teams.
More talent, sure. But they are lacking one more piece–the big piece.
For the first time in over a decade, hope returned to the Sacramento fanbase during a surprise playoff run during the 2018-19 season. Behind a stellar play from De’Aaron Fox, a breakout season for Buddy Hield and role-players like Iman Shumpert, Nemanja Bjelica and Bogdan Bogdanovic playing significant roles, the Kings were finally knocking on the door of postseason play.
Of course, the wheels came off of Sacramento’s playoff-bound wagon with just over 20 games remaining in the season. After holding a 30-26 record on February 10, 2019, the Kings finished the season on a 9-17 skid to miss the postseason once again.
The past two seasons have had similar tones to the end of the 2018-19 campaign, with the Kings hanging around the playoff race–only to have their bubble bursted in the final weeks of the regular season.
During the NBA Bubble in 2020, Sacramento went 3-5 over the final eight games and missed the Play-In game by 2.5 games.
In 2021, the team found a hot-streak during a closing stretch of the season, but it wouldn’t be enough to overcome a 25-37 start to the season. The Kings would once again miss the Play-In game by just two games.
While the 2018-19 team fell short of the postseason, the campaign had a massive silver lining in the form of a breakout season from 2017’s fifth-overall pick, De’Aaron Fox.
Since his breakout season over two years ago, Fox has turned into one of the premier guards in the league with his elite speed, improved mid-range jumper and aggressiveness that resulted in the 10th-most free throw attempts in the league last season.
In 2020-21, the 23-year-old averaged a career-high 25.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game on 47-percent shooting from the field. Fox topped the 40-point mark on three occasions and claimed Western Conference Player of the Week honors in February and March of 2021.
In Fox, the Kings have their franchise centerpiece. The former Kentucky Wildcat will begin a five-year max contract in 2021-22 that will run through the 2025-26 season.
When it comes to surrounding Fox with talent, Sacramento has some pieces that can play pivotal roles in the coming years.
Notable standout rookie Tyrese Haliburton was one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 NBA Draft after 11 teams passed on the 6’5 guard, giving the Kings and new general manager Monte McNair the chance to pounce on the versatile guard.
Haliburton’s ability to knock down shots (40% 3PT) and create offense (5.3 APG) while also playing active defense on and off of the basketball make him an ideal backcourt mate for Fox, a speedy guard that loves to run the floor.
A massive positive for Sacramento over the past two seasons has been the presence of big man Richaun Holmes, an efficient center that just inked a four-year contract to cement himself as the team’s man in the middle for years to come.
Holmes produced his second-consecutive career-year in 2020-21, scoring 14.2 points, grabbing 8.3 rebounds and swatting 1.6 shots per game. The 27-year-old ranked second in the NBA in field goal percentage after knocking down 63-percent of his field goal attempts.
Veteran forward Harrison Barnes arguably had his best season as a professional in 2020-21, scoring 16.1 points per game to go along with career-highs in rebounds (6.6) and assists (3.5) per game.
Barnes enjoyed his best shooting season of his career as well, converting a career-high 49-percent of his field goal attempts and a blistering 39-percent of his three-point field goal attempts.
These are the facts:
- De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes all had career-years
- Tyrese Haliburton far exceeded expectations
- It still was not enough
The Sacramento Kings were lucky enough to get a monster season from their franchise guard, career-years for two veterans and a top-three Rookie of the Year finish from their most recent draft pick and it still did not put them within the top-ten teams in the Western Conference.
Depth has been an issue for the Kings, something that McNair has done an admirable job of improving in the first half of the offseason.
Retaining Holmes, re-signing impressive guard Terence Davis, trading for 2016 champion center Tristan Thompson, retaining seasoned forward Moe Harkless and bringing back old friend Alex Len will bring a sense of balance to the second unit.
Through four NBA Summer League games, 2021 9th overall pick Davion Mitchell looks as if he can sub into an NBA game tomorrow and create stops with his mind boggling defensive presence. Fellow rookie and 39th pick Neemias Queta should provide the roster with even more insurance at the center position.
And yet, the team still is projected to win 34.5 games.
What will move the needle for this team? What needs to be done? Well, acquiring a star player, of course.
Alas, that is much easier said than done.
Rumors have swirled this offseason of Sacramento’s interest in a bevy of huge names, such as Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, Philadelphia 76ers All-Star guard/forward Ben Simmons and Toronto Raptors swingman Pascal Siakam.
The asking price for all of these options is said to be astronomical, which is expected.
Lillard is almost assuredly not going anywhere, while the case for Simmons or Siakam remain plausible.
After a falling out with Philadelphia, reports are surfacing that state Simmons has no interest in moving forward with the organization, with some reports even claiming that the 25-year-old will not report to training camp this fall if no trade is made.
As for Siakam, the Raptors have undergone a makeover just two years after claiming their first-ever NBA Championship in 2019. Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, Danny Green and now franchise cornerstone Kyle Lowry have all departed.
In last month’s draft, Toronto selected talented wing Scottie Barnes with the fourth-overall pick, raising the question of Siakam’s longterm fit with the new-look roster.
Both Simmons and Siakam are reportedly available via trade, but both players will not be cheap. Any trade for either player will likely cost a version of Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley III and several first round picks–possibly as much as three or four first rounders.
Adding a long, defensive option like Simmons or Siakam to a lineup that features Fox, Haliburton, Barnes and Holmes would create one of the more intriguing Kings lineups in recent memory.
The fact that Sacramento would have legit scoring AND defensive threats in positions one through five is something that would seem foreign to the fanbase.
Simmons is a 6’11 anomaly that can run the offense like a guard, rebound like a center and defend the best player on the floor. Siakam has the ability to score 30 points on any given night while also possessing the ability to size up on elite forwards with his 7’3 wingspan.
Acquiring either of these players will cost a pretty penny in the form of years of first-round picks.
Sacrificing draft picks is a gamble for a team like the Kings, a franchise that has held a lottery pick in 14 of the last 15 seasons…but that’s what it takes to acquire All-Star level talent.
The last time Sacramento made a significant ‘add’ move, it was in December of 2013 for then-All-Star-caliber forward Rudy Gay. In return for Gay, the Kings sent four players–essentially the entire bench unit–to acquire the high-scoring wing.
As we all know today, acquiring Rudy Gay was not the move that ended Sacramento’s playoff drought. It didn’t solve the team’s issues and it didn’t even push the team’s win total into the 40’s.
But that is a similar type of move that the Kings need to make, that needle-pushing type of deal to acquire a player that could be a difference maker. The move is out there. It’s Monte McNair’s job to go out there and find it.
Until then, the Kings are sitting with a very similar rotation to last year’s team that finished 31-41:
- PG: De’Aaron Fox, Davion Mitchell
- SG: Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Terence Davis, Jahmi’us Ramsey
- SF: Harrison Barnes, Moe Harkless, Robert Woodard
- PF: Marvin Bagley III, Tristan Thompson, Chimezie Metu
- C: Richaun Holmes, Alex Len, Damian Jones, Neemias Queta
Until a move is made, the win projection will remain at an underwhelming 34.5 wins.
If the Kings were to swing a deal for one of Simmons or Siakam, one has to think that 34.5 number would climb closer to that coveted 40-mark, a mark that might just put the Kings into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
The clock has started for De’Aaron Fox, who will become an unrestricted free agent when his contract ends in 2026. Can Monte McNair build a winner in Sacramento before time runs out?
As the 2021-22 season approaches, the next two months could have a say in the future of this team’s success.
