SF Giants watch NL Wild Card hopes dwindle to less than 1%

Sep 22, 2023, 8:56 AM | Updated: 9:00 am

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 21: Luke Jackson #77 of the San Francisco Giants covers home af...

(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Sacramento Kings Beat Writer

It wasn’t supposed to happen this way for the San Francisco Giants.

Entering last Friday’s series against the last-place Colorado Rockies, the Giants had won five of their past six games as they inched closer to taking sole possession of the third and final National League Wild Card spot.

One week later, things are looking much more bleak for the orange and black.

After losing three out of four against the Rockies, San Francisco has lost three straight games–two against the Wild Card-hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks and the latest loss coming on Thursday night at the hands of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Giants’ chances of playing October baseball have dwindled to just 0.7% per Baseball Reference, as San Francisco sits three games behind the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins for the final spot with just nine games remaining on the regular season schedule.

How many homers for J.D.? 30 and thriving. pic.twitter.com/K6DPffsaC8

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 22, 2023

What is the current state of the NL Wild Card standings?

With less than ten games remaining on their regular season schedule, the odds are stacked against the Giants regarding the possibility of securing an NL Wild Card spot.

Not only will San Francisco have to jump three teams–Cincinnati, Chicago, and Miami–in order to claim a postseason spot, but they will have to do so while navigating a brutal final stretch that features six games against the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers.

Entering play on Friday, the Giants sit three games behind the Marlins and Cubs, who are currently in a tie for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, those looming games against the Dodgers give them the second-hardest remaining strength of schedule in Major League Baseball, according to Tankatahon.

Teams around them in the standings like Cincinnati (27th), Miami (16th), and Chicago (10th) have much easier remaining schedules during the final week-plus or regular season play, meaning that the Giants will need to win a majority of their remaining matchups if they want to play baseball past October 1st.

Another interesting storyline to watch over the next week: the San Diego Padres.

X MARKS THE SPOT pic.twitter.com/Jtx3m43JZ0

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 20, 2023

Once thought dead in the playoff hunt, San Diego has climbed back within four games of a Wild Card spot with nine games to go. Although the Padres’ chances of making the playoffs are slim–slimmer than San Francisco’s 0.7% probability–next week’s three-game set between San Diego and the Giants at Oracle Park could see one of the two teams eliminated from postseason contention.

The Padres hold the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league, with matchups against struggling teams like the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox coming up, along with a three-game set against San Francisco.

For the Giants, it’s hard to see them still in the mix for a Wild Card spot if they are three games or more outside of the picture come Monday morning.