Preview: Kings, Warriors set for first playoff matchup in NBA history

The Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors have spent the past 38 years just over an hour away from one another, and they have never faced off in an NBA Playoff series.

That is until now, of course.

Sacramento will meet the defending champion Warriors on Saturday night at Golden 1 Center in a game featuring plenty of pomp and circumstance as the Kings will play its first postseason game since 2006.

This matchup of two Northern California franchises will feature two teams that have been on very different trajectories.

Golden State has won four NBA championships over the past eight seasons. Sacramento missed the NBA Playoffs in sixteen-straight seasons before clinching a third-seed finish in the Western Conference standings.

While the Warriors have built a dynasty over the past decade, this year’s team has not looked like its dominant, perennial Finals contender selves. After posting an 11-30 record on the road, Golden State enters play on Saturday as the sixth seed, meaning the Kings will have home-court advantage throughout the first round.

Sacramento, however, has struggled to win consistently at home this season. The Kings’ record of 23-18 at Golden 1 Center is the worst home record out of the top six seeds.

Saturday can't come soon enough.

Golden 1 Center is going to be WILD.pic.twitter.com/vpCMV2rzjr

— Frankie Cartoscelli (@FCartoscelli3) April 10, 2023

While Sacramento has struggled to defend its home court this season, there is no doubt that the energy will be off the charts for Game 1 and Game 2 at Downtown Commons.

The Kings will take its historic offense, one that posted the highest offensive rating in NBA history (119.4) and led the league in points per game (120.7), into battle against a Warriors team arguably possesses the greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the game.

It’s a battle of two Northern California foes, and fans are amped up to get this thing going.

How do these two teams match up? Who has the advantage in offense, defense, bench, and more? Let’s dive into it.

At A Glance: Kings vs. Warriors in 2022-23

Sacramento Kings		Golden State Warriors
1	Wins	3
114.3	Points/G	120.0
44.8	Rebounds/G	43.8
27.5	Assists/G	28.8
13.3	Turnovers/G	17.5
.445	FG%	.501
.327	3PT%	.390
.736	FT%	.784
9.3	Steals/G	5.8
1.8	Blocks/G	5.3

Head-to-Head History

October 23rd | Chase Center | Warriors 130, Kings 125

November 7th | Chase Center | Warriors 116, Kings 113

November 13th | Golden 1 Center | Kings 122, Warriors 115

April 7th | Golden 1 Center | Warriors 119, Kings 97**

** De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Andrew Wiggins did not play

Offense

The Kings and Warriors are two offensive heavyweights.

While the Warriors do most of their damage from beyond the arc (see the three-point shooting section for more), they can beat you in various ways.

Much like Golden State, Sacramento has proven that they can also beat you in many different ways, whether it be from deep, on the break while pushing the pace, or in the post.

De’Aaron Fox will look to get out and run against a Warriors team that allowed 14.1 fast-break points per game (18th in the NBA) this season. Domantas Sabonis will be a threat in the post, but he’ll have to earn his looks with Kevon Looney patrolling the paint.

Golden State isn’t a team that looks to cause damage around the basket, as they scored 44.9 points per game in the paint this season (28th in the NBA).

The Warriors have crisp ball movement and a deadly arsenal of three-point threats, but the Kings can match Golden State’s offensive output. Sacramento’s unreliable defense could cost them this series, but it’s hard to envision the offense acting as the issue.

Advantage: Kings

Defense

The Kings will have their work cut out for them in this series.

Sacramento allowed opponents to score 118.1 points per game (25th in the NBA) and shoot 37.3% from three-point range (26th in the NBA). The Kings’ defensive rating of 116.8 was the sixth-worst in the league.

Golden State isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, as they allowed opponents to score 117.1 points per game (21st in the NBA) while holding a defensive rating of 114.4 (17th in the NBA).

The Warriors scored 120 points per game while shooting 39 percent from beyond the arc during four meetings with the Kings this season, while also pulling down eight offensive rebounds per game to create second-chance opportunities.

Defensive Player of the Year winner Draymond Green will look to create chaos on the defensive end and make players like Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, and Domantas Sabonis uncomfortable, while Davion Mitchell will be tasked with trying to slow down Curry when he is on the floor.

It isn’t a secret–the Kings really struggle on defense. Although Sacramento has been a better defensive team during the fourth quarter, they can’t bank on letting their opponent get looks and expect to be able to come away with a win. Consistency is needed.

Will Mike Brown have some tricks up his sleeve against his former team? From a coaching perspective, the Kings have all of the intel that they need on Golden State as Brown and assistant coaches Leandro Barbosa and Luke Loucks all spent time on Kerr’s staff.

If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are locked in and doing damage, it’s hard to envision Sacramento picking up a series win. The Kings will need to slow the Warriors and its red-hot perimeter shooting if they want a chance at advancing into the second round.

Advantage: Warriors

Three-Point Shooting

Both of these teams love to shoot the long ball.

Golden State set an NBA single-season record for made three-point field goals in 2022-23, as they made 1,363 triples on 3,540 attempts (.385).

Sacramento’s historic offense has propelled them into a top-three seed in the Western Conference standings, and three-point shooting had a heavy hand in the team’s 48-win campaign. The Kings broke a franchise record by sinking 1,128 triples while shooting 37% from deep (9th in the NBA).

Six players finished the season having made at least 200 three-point field goals while shooting 40 percent or higher on three-point attempts during the 2022-23 regular season. Four of those players will take the floor on Saturday at Golden 1 Center:

Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter.

For a deeper look at the Kings vs. Warriors three-point battle, click here.

Advantage: Warriors

Bench

Both teams have high-scoring guards that can come into a game and go on a heater.

Warriors guard Jordan Poole averaged 20.4 points per game this season, although he struggled against the Kings (13.0 points per game on 33/30/81 shooting splits).

Malik Monk broke Sacramento’s single-season bench scoring record in 2022-23 after averaging 13.5 points per game on 36 percent shooting from three-point range.

What makes this series interesting is that All-Star forward Andrew Wiggins is reportedly aiming to return to action after missing the final 25 games of the season due to personal reasons. It’s possible that Wiggins will be brought off the bench as he gets back into game shape, which would leave former Kings guard Donte DiVincenzo in the starting lineup.

Sacramento has Davion Mitchell and Trey Lyles in its second unit, while scoring guard Terence Davis and defensive wing Kessler Edwards are possibilities for spot minutes.

Golden State has Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, and Anthony Lamb on its bench, which in my mind is enough to give them an edge in this category–especially if Wiggins is part of that bench unit.

Advantage: Warriors

Clutch

In most seasons, the Warriors would take this category by a landslide, but not in 2022-23.

De’Aaron Fox has proven time and time again that he is build for the big moment. The All-Star guard leads the NBA in several clutch categories, and he will likely become the first-ever winner of the Jerry West Clutch Award.

Of course, the playoffs are a different beast, and we have yet to see Fox in a late-game situation in the postseason. But Fox seems to have the makings of a player that is built for the big moment–especially in the NBA Playoffs.

During Sacramento’s win over the Warriors on November 13th, Fox took over in the fourth as he scored 11 points on five-of-six shooting over 10 minutes.

The Kings are going to need more Fourth Quarter Fox in the playoffs, especially against experienced closers like Curry and Thompson.

Call it recency bias if you want. What Fox has been doing this year in late-game situations has been incredible, and for that I’m giving Sacramento an edge. If Fox is on the floor in a close game with less than five minutes to go, I like the Kings’ chances.

Advantage: Kings

The Curry Effect

Stephen Curry absolutely torches the Sacramento Kings.

Curry has averaged 33.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 58 percent from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc over four games.

The two-time MVP’s 33-point average against the Kings is his highest against any team that he has faced three or more times this season, as it is evident that Sacramento has no clear answer in slowing the future Hall of Fame guard.

Golden State is 18-10 when Curry scores 30+ points this season, meaning that the Kings will have a much better chance of pulling out a win if they can contain the high-scoring guard. How they will do that is a question that nobody seems to have an answer to, but one that Brown and his staff will need to address in the coming days.

Advantage: Seeing that the Kings don’t have Steph Curry, Golden State.

Series Prediction

Although they are entering this series as the lower seed, the Warriors are widely viewed as the heavy favorite to win this series.

Sacramento’s noted inexperience being used as a reason for failure makes sense, especially from a national perspective, but the Kings’ 1-3 record against Golden State this season is a tad misleading.

The Kings struggled in the first matchup between the two teams this season, falling down by 20+ points in the first half before the battle of the benches brought Sacramento within four points late in the game. Two weeks later, a missed foul call on a game-tying three-point attempt cost the Kings an overtime period at Chase Center.

Sacramento got the best of Golden State during a 122-115 win at Golden 1 Center on November 13th. In the last matchup between the two teams, the Kings sat four core rotation players (Fox, Sabonis, Huerter, Monk) while the Warriors were without Andrew Wiggins.

Prior to that final matchup of the season, the Kings had only been outscored by one point in head-to-head matchups against Golden State. These teams are closer in ability than many think, and Sacramento’s relentless offense will challenge a Warriors defense that hasn’t been as impressive as previous years.

The Warriors are better on paper. No doubt. They have the experience, they have the championship pedigree, they have the Hall of Fame talent.

While Golden State has dominated the Western Conference Playoffs over the past decade (won 18-straight series), its performance on the road does not bode well for advancing–historically, at least.

According to NBA writer Matt Moore, the Warriors became the 19th team to lose 30 or more road games and make the  NBA playoffs. Of those previous 18 teams, 17 were eliminated in the first round.

Sacramento has proven people wrong all season long, despite the odds against them. Making the Playoffs. Winning the Pacific. Clinching home court. Nobody saw this coming.

While it seems as if nobody outside of the 916 has faith in the Kings pulling out a series win, I have faith that this team will continue to surprise and continue its cinderella run of a season.

Prediction: Kings in 6.

Upcoming Sacramento Kings Schedule

NBA Western Conference Playoffs – First Round

• Saturday, April 15th – Game 1: Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors – 5:30 PM PST
• Monday, April 17th – Game 2: Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:00 PM PST
• Thursday, April 20th – Game 3: Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors – 7:00 PM PST
• Sunday, April 23rd – Game 4: Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors – 12:30 PM PST
• Wednesday, April 26th – Game 5**: Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors – TBD
• Friday, April 28th – Game 6**: Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors – TBD
• Sunday, April 30th – Game 7**: Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors – TBD

**If necessary

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