NBA Eastern Conference Over/Unders: Predictions for the NBA 2022-23 Regular Season

After a long and dramatic offseason, the NBA is officially back basketball fans!

Over four months since the Golden State Warriors lifted the Larry O’Brien trophy after defeating the Boston Celtics in six games, we start it all over again Tuesday Night. The Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers kick off the new season at 4 p.m. PST, then the Warriors face off against the Los Angeles Lakers at 7 p.m. PST to round out the doubleheader.

But before we get to the opening tip, let’s take a look at the over/under projections for each team’s regular season win total and if they’ll hit the “over” or the “under”, this season.

Disclaimer: All projection props were accurate at the time of publishing this article.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics

Over/Under: 53.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 51-31

Prediction: Under

Last season’s Eastern Conference winners started the offseason on a hot note, signing Danilo Gallanari and Malcom Brogdan to an already championship-caliber squad. Things quickly turned both tough.

Whether it’s losing Gallo to a season-ending torn ACL or losing head coach Ime Udoka to suspension, the Celtics have a lot of questions to answer in an even more loaded Eastern Conference. Losing defensive presence Robert Williams III for the start of the season doesn’t help as well.

Even with all the setbacks, Boston is still led by young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who have to be still upset at losing their first NBA Finals together only four months ago. Both are young and should make strides of growth now in their fifth season together.

The real questions marks come in the frontcourt. Aging wonder Al Horford played over 2,800 minutes last season, a recipe that won’t work again if they want to make a deep run. Signing former highflier Blake Griffin could help with that but not against the elite big men in the east.

For all the reasons listed above, the under makes more sense for this Celtics that could catch fire late in the year.

Brooklyn Nets

Over/Under: 51.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 44-38

Prediction: Under

Where do I begin with this franchise?

After an offseason consisting of both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving asking out for whatever reason they came up with the day, the Nets actually have a competitive roster that could make a postseason run.

The problem is that none of them are ever healthy at the same time.

Right now, SGs Joe Harris and Seth Curry, and SF T.J. Warren are all out for the first few weeks of the season. That’s a good chunk of Brooklyn’s depth already missing to start the campaign.

Then you throw in Durant’s age, 34, and Irving’s on-again, off-again offensive output, and you get a team that will be finding its way up until the trade deadline.

Oh, and did I forget to mention Ben Simmons, their third supposed star who refuses to shoot outside shots because why not? Yeah, he’ll be joining this rag-tag group of misfits after not playing the last year and a half due to back problems and holdouts.

Simply put, I don’t see the Nets reaching 52 wins so let’s take the under in this one.

New York Knicks

Over/Under: 38.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 37-45

Prediction: Over

New York is back baby!!!

Well kind of.

The Knicks’ biggest acquisition of PG Jalen Brunson should shore up a lot of key areas that halted New York last season. A playmaker that knows how to run an offense, Brunson proved his worth in the Utah Jazz series, leading the Mavericks to a lead in the series before Doncic returned to finish them off. He’s very pesky on defense as well, able to frustrate opposing guards with his intensity and never give up attitude.

Those traits should bleed over to others like Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, both checked out at times last season. Randle will be the biggest question mark for the Knickerbockers, can he replicate the form of 2020 when he made his first All-Star team.

If he can do that, and R.J. Barrett takes another leap forward in Year 4, this Knicks team should be hovering around .500, regardless of who the coach is by the end of the year.

Philadephia 76ers

Over/Under: 50.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 51-31

Prediction: Over

My pick to win the East in 2022-23, the 76ers are going to be a true title contender this season.

Led by formidable MVP candidate Joel Embiid, the 76ers have at least 10 guys you could go into a playoff series with. The acquisitions of P.J. Tucker and DeAnthony Melton give the team a much needed defensive identity that coincides with the city’s mentality. Tough.

The key to this team is the future first-ballot Hall of Famer James Harden. After two seasons of down performances, injuries, and downright crazy situations (thanks Brooklyn), Harden claims to be healthy and in peak shape heading into his 14th regular season.

Let me be clear, he’ll never be the Harden of Houston again, that ship has sailed. But if he can be productive as the true second fiddle to Embiid, getting clutch buckets and making plays for his teammates, that’ll work with a squad loaded with talent. Third-year combo guard Tyrese Maxey is also set to make a big leap this season, looking like he’s bulked up considerably in the last few months.

Those three stars, complemented by playoff-caliber rotational pieces, makes Philly one of the teams to beat in the East.

Toronto Raptors

Over/Under: 46.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 48-34

Prediction: Over

If you look at Toronto’s roster and their record last season, how could they not hit the over?

The 2021 Raptors were a pleasant surprise for NBA fans, combining defensive versatility with high-percentage offense to make the fifth seed of the playoffs.

Combo forward Scottie Barnes looked the part last season, and is now set to make an even bigger splash in his sophomore campaign. Pascal Siakam made his first All-NBA team as well, doing it all for Toronto at times on both ends of the floor. Then ole’ reliable in Fred VanVleet, a true Raptor for life that has seen this franchise at its’ best and its’ worst. He’s good for 20 points and five assists most nights.

Combine all those three with head coach Nick Nurse’s system and perimeter shooting and defense from the depth, the Raptors will make some noise again in 2023.

Central Division:

Chicago Bulls

Over/Under: 41.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 46-36

Prediction: Over

One of the hottest teams out of the gate last season, injuries have lingered into the present to make a very murky 2022-23 season for the Bulls.

The biggest miss right now is starting PG Lonzo Ball, still unable to run or jump after surgery to repair his knee last season. Ball recently went under the knife again to correct the issue, hopefully this time for good.

Aside from their facilitator, the Bulls are actually in good shape entering the season. Third-year forward Patrick Williams returns to the team after missing most of last season due to injury. He’ll provide some combo defense on the wing and in the paint, something Chicago needed down the stretch.

The team also returns Zach Lavine, Demar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic to the starting lineup, giving the Bull a puncher’ chance in any contest. The key to their season is if Lavine can take a step forward and if DeRozan can sustain his 2021 form. I see the former happening more so than the latter but the two should balance one another out on offense.

Second-year guard Ayo Dosunmu will be thrust into the spotlight as well, playing sixth man and starting point alongside Alex Caruso.

An injury or regression to the mean could happen for the Bulls, I just don’t see them being a below .500 team.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Over/Under: 47.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 48-34

Prediction: Under

One of the winners of the offseason, the Cavaliers have gotten really good, really fast.

Thanks to general manager Koby Altman, Cleveland has their best roster since LeBron left for the second time in 2018. A starting lineup of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Issac Okoro, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen will keep coaches up for nights trying to figure out how to stop them.

The team was good before the addition of Mitchell, but by acquiring a real bucket-getter like Spida, the Cavs have signaled to the league that they are not to be slept on.

With that being said, this team is young and will have some growing pains this season as they learn to play together. The highs of Mitchell can be quite high, but the lows can be really low too. He’ll need to learn how to play with Garland and his teammates, which could take the first half of their season to figure out.

For that reason alone, I don’t see them getting 48 wins but will still be a formidable playoff team hitting their stride down the stretch run.

Detroit Pistons

Over/Under: 29.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 23-59

Prediction: Over

Year 2 Cade Cunningham is why we watch the Detroit Pistons.

Formerly one of America’s laughingstocks, Detroit now plays a brand of basketball that is fun, exciting and tough as heck.

Cunningham and rookie combo guard Jaden Ivey should be must-see TV for the next decade, able to pick and pop their way too the basket at will. Combine Cade’s passing IQ with Jaden’s high-flying abilities and killer instincts, these two will be one of the league’s best backcourts in a few years.

Detroit also added veteran forward Bojan Bogdanovic to the roster, giving Cunningham another scoring option from the perimeter. Saddiq Bey can go off for 30 points at any time (he had a 50-point game last season), and Isaiah Stewart and rookie Jalen Duren are defensive machines in the paint.

Don’t be surprised to see Detroit get 30 wins this season as Cunningham continues to ascend up the ladder of elite playmakers in the NBA.

Indiana Pacers

Over/Under: 23.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 25-57

Prediction: Under

The Indiana Pacers are a trade away from being absolutely terrible, and that’s a good thing.

Led by former Sacramento King, Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers have a lot of young talent on the roster, but a lot of inexperience to go along with it. This season will be all able rebuilding, developing the young guys, and getting the best odds possible to draft Wembanyama.

Don’t get me wrong, they could win a random game on a Tuesday night in February, they have talent coming out of the wazoo. Rookie Bennedict Mathurin has been the most impressive so far, showing in preseason play that he has a bright future in this league.

But that future comes with challenges and this season will be a challenge for these young Pacers, hoping to lose more games than win.

Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 52.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 51-31

Prediction: Under

A perennial contender the last few years, the Bucks won’t hit their over only because Khris Middleton is hurt again.

Dealing with a wrist issue, Middleton will likely be out the first few weeks of the regular season. A massive blow considering how important his absence was in the playoffs last year.

On top of that, Pat Connaughton is out with a calf strain. Plus Joe Ingles is still recovering from his torn ACL and won’t see the court until the new year. Yes, they still have a healthy (and probably angry) Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, but this season feels like last year, ever fully healthy across the board.

They’ll still be title contenders once everyone comes back, but expect the Bucks to favor availability in the postseason rather than the regular season in 2023.

Southeast Division:

Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 45.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 43-39

Prediction: Over

The Atlanta Hawks made a trade this offseason that re-annouced them to the NBA, acquiring DeJounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs to form a terrifying backcourt with Trae Young.

Murray is great on both sides of the ball, having his best statistical season last year to lead the Spurs to the Play-In Tournament. He now joins a young Hawks team that can score and defend with the best of them. It’ll take some getting used to for Young, the primary ball handler his whole life, but Murray opens up avenues that previously weren’t there last season. He can defend the best guard while allowing Trae to sit back and coast sometimes on defense.

Couple that with the switchability of DeAndre Hunter and John Collins, and you have a team that can do a lot of things very well. Clint Cappella still mans the center spot, good for eight to 15 rebounds a game.

This team will either come out of the gates hot or falter like they have the last few years. I’m taking the former.

Charlotte Hornets

Over/Under: 34.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 43-39

Prediction: Under

This a weird team, both on and off the court.

Whether it’s Gordon Hayward’s botched haircut, or players getting arrested (see Miles Bridges and James Bouknight), the 2022 Hornets will probably not win a lot of games this season.

They do have some talent with Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, and budding star LaMelo Ball, but seriously how many games do you think they’ll win in a loaded Eastern Conference? To make matters worse, Ball suffered a high ankle sprain during the preseason and is likely out for a few weeks to start the year. Charlotte also re-hired head coach Steve Clifford, because his tenure with the team was so successful.

All I’m saying is that the Hornets should be a seller at the trades deadline, getting draft picks and prospects for their win-now players. Meanwhile, they’ll secretly being drooling at the idea of pairing Ball with Wembanyama, I know I am.

Miami Heat

Over/Under: 49.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 53-29

Prediction: Over

The same ole’ Heat, rolling out the same ole’ roster. It’s hard to pick against Heat culture and head coach Erik Spolestra, the organization is just good at winning games.

Still led by All-NBA Jimmy Butler, Miami is looking to add a fourth title to their trophy cabinet yet again with practically the same roster as last season. Just like last year, the Heat are contingent on the shape of PG Kyle Lowry, entering his 18th season in the league. If he can become the old Lowry for a period of time (All-Star caliber), then the Heat could have major success. If not, who knows?

This season will also be pivotal for sixth-man Tyler Herro, getting a fat contract extension in the offseason. It’s put-up or shut-up time for the Kentucky sharpshooter, can he be more than just a turnstile on defense? Can he stay hot consistently?

Those are the major questions along with Butler’s health, now 33 years old.

At the end of the day though, it’s hard to pick against the Heat, they just love winning.

Orlando Magic

Over/Under: 27.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 22-60

Prediction: Under

The Orlando Magic finally have a foundation of talent to build upon, but the winning won’t come this year.

Consisting only of young players and Terrance Ross, the Magic will be fun and exciting on offense in 2022-23. Headlined by first-overall pick, Paolo Banchero, Orlando will get butts in seats just to see the potential of this team three years down the line. They’ll keep me watching highlights late at night, trying to figure out how to best use Banchero and Franz Wagner.

On top of those guys, second-year Jalen Suggs looks to make a big leap, while Cole Anthony and the mysterious Markelle Fultz quarterback the team.

The Magic will have a few tricks up their sleeves, just not enough to win games at the moment.

Washington Wizards

Over/Under: 35.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 35-47

Prediction: Under

Last but not least (hopefully), the Washington Wizards.

They belong in their own category: What is this team?!?

Are they trying to win? Are they trying to lose? Are they trying some new analytics Twitter crapped out one random weeknight?

The point being, I don’t know what this roster guarantees you moving forward.

Franchise cornerstone Bradley Beal is still here, signing one of the largest contract extensions ever in the offseason. Kristaps Porzingis is present, for about 40 games or until his lower body gives out like the leaning tower of Pisa. They traded for Will Barton and Monte Morris because that’ll win you some games (not).

And to top it all off, 10th overall pick Johnny Davis, yeah he seems like a swing-and-a-miss heading into the regular season. His summer league stats were the stuff of legend, and not in a good way, looking like he should have stayed at Wisconsin forever.

To put it nicely, it would behoove Tommy Sheppard and the Wizards’ front office to consider bottoming out if this thing goes south fast.

Follow @AmilianoFragoso

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