NBA Western Conference Over/Unders: Predictions for the 2022-23 Regular Season

After a long and dramatic offseason, the NBA is officially back basketball fans!

Over four months since the Golden State Warriors lifted the Larry O’Brien trophy after defeating the Boston Celtics in six games, we start it all over again Tuesday Night. The Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers kick off the new season at 4 p.m. PST, then the Warriors face off against the Los Angeles Lakers at 7 p.m. PST to round out the doubleheader.

But before we get to the opening tip, let’s take a look at the over/under projections for each team’s regular season win total and if they’ll hit the “over” or the “under”, this season.

Disclaimer: All projection props were accurate at the time of publishing this article.

Western Conference

Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets

Over/Under: 51.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 48-34

Prediction: Over

Led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets are loaded for the 2022-23 season. Exchanging Will Barton for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and signing Bruce Brown this offseason feels like smart maneuvers, giving both outside shooting and defensive intensity across the board.

The key will be the return of franchise point guard Jamal Murray, missing last season due to an ACL tear. While the team has taken a cautious approach to his return, expect the 25-year-old Canadian to light it up once he gets fully acclimated. Michael Porter Jr. is also healthy entering the new season. We’ll see how long he can stay healthy, but if he can, this is a team that has all the makings of a championship contender starting to get hot going into 2023.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Over/Under: 48.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 46-36

Prediction: Over

Another team I expect to hit their over is the new and improved Minnesota Timberwolves.

One of the biggest trades of the offseason was the acquisition of three-time defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert, trading back almost the entire farm to Utah to snag the Frenchman’s services. A frontcourt of Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert might sound confusing to NBA traditionalists, but these two will have a no-fly zone on the defensive side of the ball in the regular season.

Offensively, the team’s success is dependent on the development of shooting guard Anthony Edwards. Taking a big leap in Year 2, “Ant-Man” seems as locked in as ever, looking to make his first All-Star appearance of his young NBA career.

The questions will start to arise around the playoffs, given Gobert’s track record, but they’ll be a dominant force throughout the first 82 games of the year.

Portland Trail Blazers

Over/Under: 39.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 27-55

Prediction: Over

After a season of injuries and purposing tanking the second half of the season, Portland is back with a little more firepower in 2022-23.

Franchise PG Damian Lillard is the wheel that keeps this team afloat, finally having his abdominal surgery that has hindered his play the last few years. Dame still hasn’t looked fully himself in the preseason but as we all know when he gets hot, there’s no stopping him.

The acquisition of Jerami Grant is a shrewd move, giving Portland real 2-to-5 versatility on defense. He’s already been a force on that side of the ball in preseason play, if his three-point shooting stays around the 36 to 39% mark, he’ll be one of their best players this season. Retaining Anfernee Simmons and Jusuf Nurkic round out this core, with sporting potential, especially the former, on offense.

This is a loaded division so expect some tough losses along the way. Even still, they have enough talent to be a .500 team and that’s where they’ll land in 2023.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Over/Under: 22.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 24-58

Prediction: Under

Already without second-overall pick Chet Holmgren for the season (Lisfranc Injury), the Thunder should not be looking to win games this season.

Made up of almost entirely young prospects, OKC will deploy lineups that have you checking the team’s program before the game. The real kicker will be how many games future All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays this season, having been shut down after 56 and 35 games in the last two seasons.

A second-year Josh Giddey could also threaten this over, given how talented of a playmaker he was in his rookie season. The Thunder should once again follow the blueprint: Develop and get better as a unit, without putting too many W’s in the win column. The ultimate prize of French big man Victor Wembanyama could be theirs after all.

Utah Jazz

Over/Under: 23.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 49-33

Prediction: Under

If there was ever a team that screamed “We’re tanking publicly,” it’d be the Utah Jazz.

Trading away both Gobert and SG Donovan Mitchell in the offseason, the Danny Ainge era is officially upon us, and with that comes a few losing seasons.

They have talent on the roster: SG Collin Sexton, forward Lauri Markkanen, and rookie Ochai Agbaji to name a few. But this team is built to lose and acquire more draft picks in the near future with Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, and Jordan Clarkson all likely to not be on the roster by the trade deadline.

Getting the No.1 overall pick should be the goal for the Jazz, snagging their former center’s international teammate Wembanyama will jumpstart the rebuild like no other.

Pacific Division:

Golden State Warriors

Over/Under: 52.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 53-29

Prediction: Over

The defending champs have had a tumultuous last month, to say the least.

The “punch heard round the world” by team captain Draymond Green on Jordan Poole has raised some concerns for the Warriors heading into the regular season. Will there be a championship hangover? Will the losses of Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. impact their depth? What will Green look like offensively?

Simply put, they’ll be fine. The dynasty that is the Warriors organization can withstand a little tension in the locker room, after all, they had to deal with a moody Kevin Durant.

This season is about two things: Growth and contending. The return of big-man prospect James Wiseman will be vital to this team’s paint defense, and the growth of Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Poole will help alleviate any depth issues they may have had.

Golden State is still one of the best teams in the world, led by arguably the greatest point guard ever, Steph Curry.

LA Clippers

Over/Under: 52.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 42-40

Prediction: Under

The Clippers and the Lakers (we’ll get to them in a minute) are two teams that are almost impossible to pick, simply because there are too many outcomes for both organizations.

Let’s start with the Clips.

LA’s second-fiddle franchise had a winning record last season, despite not having Kawhi Leonard (ACL) for the whole season and Paul George (elbow) for most of the regular season. Now with both of them healthy, the Clippers should be back in title contention going on Year 4 of this duo. They also added veteran PG John Wall and kept pretty much their entire roster from last season.

So what’s the problem?

The problem is not ability, it’s availability with this team.

Can Kawhi play 50 games this season? I don’t know. Can Paul George play 55 games this season? He hasn’t done that since his OKC days. I have no clue.

If this dynamic duo can stay on the court together and produce, great, they’ll be in the mix come April. But until they do it for at least one season, I can’t take them at more than 50 wins, which is why the under makes much more sense.

LA Lakers

Over/Under: 44.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 33-49

Prediction: Over

Similar situation to their LA neighbors, the Lakers’ 2022-23 season could go a lot of different ways.

The key to this team is the health of franchise big-man Anthony Davis, or “Street Clothes” as Charles Barkley likes to call him. AD has only played in 76 games the last two seasons, dealing with back and lower body issues throughout his NBA tenure. Already missing preseason games with back “tightness,” Davis’s problems continue to linger.

The rest of the Lakers are also a major question mark, still stuck with Russell Westbrook and the final year of his $47 million dollar salary. He’s now been relegated to the bench unit, while the rest of the team leaves much to be desired.

They still have LeBron James, but in Year 20 how many games can he realistically play in the regular season? 50? 60? That’s a big question mark too.

With all signs pointing down, I believe the Lakers barely hit the over because this won’t be the final roster come playoff time. Westbrook will likely be traded by the deadline and those parts should aid LeBron on his quest to ring No. 5.

Phoenix Suns

Over/Under: 52.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 64-18

Prediction: Under

This season could be a disaster for a team in the NBA Finals a year and a half ago.

Phoenix’s offseason has been filled with scandals and sales (both by owner Robert Sarver), setting up the franchise for a dramatic 2022-23 season.

On top of that, center DeAndre Ayton and the organization are still at odds after a rocky free agency period almost saw him leave to Indianapolis. Looking at his media day interviews, I’d say he’s not happy to still be in the Valley. Only 24 years old, if the Suns don’t come out of the gates hot, I’d expect him to check out in hopes of leaving the organization.

Chris Paul’s usage is also a cause for concern. Now 37, can the “Point God” play in 60 regular season games? Is that even wise, given his age and miles on his body?

There are too many variables to figure out and if one of Devin Booker or Paul gets hurt early, this team might be must-see-tv, in a bad way, come the new year.

Sacramento Kings

Over/Under: 33.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 30-52

Prediction: Over

One of my favorite over/unders heading into the regular season, our Sacramento Kings should easily hit the over.

Armed with the most talent this organization has had since the mid-2000s, Monte McNair has assembled a team that does three things well: Competes, shoots threes, and defends. That’s the key to a Mike Brown-led team and the players seem to have bought in as well.

The trade for sharpshooter Kevin Huerter was a nice addition, signing Malik Monk to the mid-level exception was even better. In these two guys alone, Sacramento has two offensive weapons that can get their own shot, something they lacked all of last season.

The fourth-overall selection of forward Keegan Murray seemed confusing to some, but not anymore. He’s been one of the best stories of the offseason, dominating in the Summer League and preseason to set up a nice rookie year.

The key is the development of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, both showing real offensive flashes after the trade deadline last season. While both aren’t the greatest defenders, Davion Mitchell alleviates that in the backcourt, and stretch bigs, KZ Okpala and Trey Lyles, shore that up in the frontcourt as well.

An exciting Kings team, at last, this may be the year our playoff drought comes to an end finally.

Southwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks

Over/Under: 48.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 52-30

Prediction: Over

Jumping up to the fourth seed and making the Western Conference Finals last season, the Mavericks are back and they are scary.

Led by All-NBA PG Luka Doncic, Dallas does a few things at an elite level: Compete, shoot threes, and defend. That’s what their whole team was built under last year with Jason Kidd, now back for his second season in Texas.

The offseason trade for stretch big man Christian Wood seems like highway robbery to me, and will eventually make his way to the starting lineup after a few offensive explosions off the bench. Dallas has most of their role players still in town, allowing the team to grow more chemistry together in this three-point friendly offense.

Losing Jalen Brunson hurts, but the Mavs get Tim Hardaway Jr. back after breaking his leg last season. He should be able to fill in most of the scoring that Brunson provided.

At the end of the day though, this is Luka’s team. I expect him to go for the MVP this season, quarterbacking his squad once again as they set out on owning the division.

Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 23.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 20-62

Prediction: Over

This one might seem questionable at first but think about it, are the Rockets going to be worse than last season? My guess is no, posting a 20-62 record after the 82 games.

The Rockets are a fun, exciting team filled with prospects that want to get better, and a young coach that wants to build a contender in the next few years. A sophomore campaign for budding star Jalen Green (who has been incredible in preseason play by the way), could propel this team to a few more wins than expected. Rookie Jabari Smith Jr. should help shore up the defense with his athleticism and instincts, even if he’s not scoring at an elite level yet.

Throw in dynamic players like Kevin Porter Jr. and Alperen Sengun and you have players who are young and hungry. That makes for a few more wins early on before the team decides to bottom out in the final month or so of the season.

Memphis Grizzlies

Over/Under: 48.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 56-26

Prediction: Under

This would be an over if not for Jaren Jackson Jr. being sidelined for the first part of the year.

The stretch big had surgery on his foot at the end of June, putting him on a four-to-six-month timeline to return to NBA action. That makes his return around Christmas time, but they may elect to keep him out into the new year.

Additionally, star point guard Ja Morant has a knack for getting hurt due to his explosive style of play. He’s never played a full season entering Year 4, missing 35 games last season with various lower body tweaks.

They have real contributors in Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane but I’m not sure that’s enough to push them over this season. For a sake of availability, I’ll take the under and we’ll see them in the playoffs as a higher seed.

New Orleans Pelicans

Over/Under: 45.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 36-46

Prediction: Over

Have you heard: Zion Williamson is healthy again!

New Orleans’s franchise superstar looks to be in incredible shape at the start of the year, back to dunking on and blocking opponents at every turn. He’ll be vying for his second All-Star appearance and honestly, I don’t see how he doesn’t get in if he can stay healthy. Williamson last averaged 27 PPG and 7.2 RPG on 61.1% shooting from the field.

Combine that with the play of budding star Brandon Ingram, seasoned veteran C.J. McCollum, and defensive terror Herbert Jones, this team is built for success in 2023.

It’ll take some time to click in-game, but once they do, look out. General Manager David Griffin has built a roster that goes ten to twelve players deep, a luxury they’ll need if they want to return to the postseason.

San Antonio Spurs

Over/Under: 22.5 Wins

Last Season’s Record: 34-48

Prediction: Under

The Spurs are right there with Utah in terms of publicly tanking the 2022-23 season.

Trading away franchise guard DeJounte Murray for a haul and a half in the offseason, San Antonio somehow convinced Gregg Popovich that it’s time to rebuild for real. And he’s on board with it.

Despite his pedigree as a coach, nothing will stop this Spurs team from possibly losing 70 wins, except maybe themselves. Rolling out lineups of players on rookie deals, this team is young and will make many mistakes this season. Swing forward Keldon Johnson is their best player and that’s not saying much. San Antonio may look to trade center Jakob Poeltl as well, hoping for a protected first in exchange for the Austrian bigman.

If you’re a Spurs fan, look away because this season won’t be pretty, but necessary if they want to give Popovich Wembanyama for the next 15 years.

Follow @AmilianoFragoso

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